11/11 IL Migration Report - Final

Hey folks,

So this is really, really cool, you guys. I know we've seen this before, but just check it out. Even on a wind map, we can see right where the cold front is, and where it has brought favorable northwesterly winds. Isn't
that awesome?

Migration in Central IL. Hardly
concentrated enough to be more
than light.

All raving aside, we are currently in a very good place for migration. With northwesterly winds dominating the state, Illinois is experiencing light migration wherever there is no precipitation. But it seems that we've gotten to the point where this is as good
as it gets. As the next few weeks go by, migration will become less and less discernible until nothing is showing on the radar.

I've debated this in my head a lot, but I think 11/11 is a good time to close up shop on the report this year. The Cornell Lab's BirdCast project closed up Friday the 8th, and at this point, even if there is migration showing on the radar, exclusively night-migrating birds like passerines are no longer showing many notable arrivals and influxes, and that's what this report is all about!

Before I sign off for the year, I'd like to remind you the same thing that I did at the beginning of the season. Fall Migration is not really a Fall Migration. For certain species, especially ducks and allies, it goes on into the green explosion we call Spring. Migration never has a set stopping point; like all natural cycles, it pushes on, displaying nature's remarkable tenacity and birds' incredible will to live. We will watch and learn as its participants brush in and out of our awareness: ducks, geese, swans, grebes, eagles, hawks, owls, gulls, cranes, the occasional hummingbird, shrikes, kinglets, nuthatches, waxwings, sparrows, longspurs, buntings, blackbirds, finches--these are all wanderers, migrants, that we have the fortune of observing this coming season, even if for a part of their life cycles. How grand it is that we get to peer out of our world and into theirs.

So even though I bid you adieu for this season, know that the birds will always be moving, always be migrating, and that we only have to get out there to experience it.

Happy birding, folks! We may just run into each other somewhere out there.

11/9-11/10 IL Migration Report

Hey all,

Sorry I missed you last night! I'll summarize it a bit here. Birds were definitely moving last night, as we were experiencing north/northwesterly winds. As many observed today along the lakefront, it seems that waterfowl were one of the largest portions of this as passerines become a smaller proportion of total migrating species. Overall, unless you're a hawkwatcher, in which case this is a very enjoyable time of year, the time of year is beginning to demand more focus on waterfowl and gulls, as many of our winter passerine species are already here. Ron Pittaway's winter finch forecast was relatively dismal this year, so most of the nomadic finches we love so much will probably be a small part of this winter's birding. Like all forecasts, Pittaway's is not an end-all be-all, and he is talking about a different region, so we could still get some

Migration Tonight

crossbills or redpolls. But compared to last winter, don't get too excited. Golly, last winter was awesome though, wasn't it?

Tonight's surface analysis. Note the cold front over MN
that is headed our way.

Anyway, with that in mind, let's take a quick look at tonight. High pressure is sitting east of Illinois right now, and its winds are putting a damper on migration in most of Illinois. Southern Illinois, surprisingly, is actually experiencing the most migration. Winds near the center of the system are almost non-existent, so this area is witness to light migration, with birds flying in the absence of a headwind.

Cool. With that out of the way, how about the next

What the winds will look like when
the cold front passes thru tomorrow

couple days? Early tomorrow morning, a cold front is going to move in from north west of us. While it will bring some precipitation and cooler temperates, the north/northwesterly winds following may facilitate a lot more migration. That means Tuesday morning, after a very productive Monday night, you local patch, especially if it holds a lake, may be hoppin' with arrivals and influxes.

Good stuff, you guys. Have a great night.

11/8 IL Migration Report

Tonight's lack of migration

Hey everyone,

So tonight, unfavorable southerly winds have indeed filled into the area, keeping migrants totally grounded over Illinois. So not much to write about tonight.

Looking into our crystal ball of future winds, winds are forecast to become west/northwesterly late tomorrow and into tomorrow night. With the passage

of a low pressure system late Sunday, it appears that Saturday night may be this weekend's best night for migration. We'll see how it plays out.

For now, happy birding, and good luck!

11/6 IL Migration Report

(Please excuse the lack of photos...Blogger is being slightly glitchy, presumably as a result of recent Google updates)

Hey folks,

So sadly, it doesn't look like we'll be getting two nights of moderate migration out of these conditions. Though winds are still favorably northwesterly, high pressure is beginning to move into our area, and if there's one thing that fall migration has taught me this year, it's that migrants don't really like high pressure. Though we are experiencing light migration in some places right now, I'm not expecting an big arrivals tomorrow.

Looking forward a couple days, winds forecast to be southerly in most of the state by tomorrow morning. These winds are then forecast to become gradually stronger and more westerly; strong westerly winds will be dominant by early Saturday afternoon. We'll see what happens with that.

Cool. Happy birding everyone!

11/6 IL Migration Report

Tonight's migration.

Hey folks,

So finally, with the passage of the cold front and its rain out of our state, we and the migrants have attained our favorable conditions. Northwesterly winds are currently blowing in strong but not too strong, giving migrants a perfect lift in the next part of their journey. This is reflected by the radar as moderate to heavy migration, and means that tomorrow, influxes of anything from waterbirds to longspurs are likely. So get out there! Find out what you may be finding here.

Looking ahead as we normally do, it appears that west/northwesterly winds are forecast to remain over our heads until some time Friday morning, so we will likely get another night

Having conveniently pushed unfavorable winds southeast
of us, northwesterly winds now flow over our heads.

out of these favorable conditions. After that, the incoming high pressure system that will sustain out northwesterly winds through tomorrow night will have moved into a position where we are on its west side--the side that produces southerly winds. After that, winds are forecast to remain southerly at least through Friday, which is where my Wind Forecast ends.

So let's get out there the next couple of days! Good luck everyone.

11/5 IL Migration Report

Tonight's radar - click to enlarge. 

Hello everyone,

The cold front, currently hung
up a bit.

Tonight we beckon the gradual arrival of favorable northwesterly winds, carried by a cold front moving in from, oddly enough, northwest of us. The drastic contrast between the winds on one side of the front compared to the other is so drastic that it creates almost a three-dimensional illusion on the wind map, which is fairly exceptional. Regardless, though essentially nothing is moving in Illinois tonight, after the front and all of its hundreds of square miles of precipitation pass over us, migrants will be in the clear for migration. The cold front is relatively slow moving, as it is repeatedly getting hung up on the nearly equal opposing force of the warm air mass which has been sitting on us for days, but we should see it filing out of Illinois just in time for tomorrow night. This means that tomorrow night, whatever means to be moving should be moving, so expect movements of open country passerines as well as waterbirds in moderate to heavy concentrations.

Good stuff folks. Good luck and Happy Trails.

Where the front should be by tomorrow night.

11/4 IL Migration Report

Hey folks,

Tonight, we have a rather short report due to the fact that literally nothing is showing up on Illinois radar in the way of birds. Strong southerly winds left over from yesterday, as usual, are to blame. 

The depicted cold front moving through IL should bring
some favorable winds.

So it makes the most sense then to look ahead. The light at the end of the tunnel is forecast to exist in the morning on Wednesday, when a cold front from northwest of us will make its way into Illinois, bringing northwesterly winds with it. The front is also forecast to carry a ton of precipitin, so we'll see what its migrant-carrying capacity ends up being. Until then, migrants should remain grounded in southerly winds.

That's all for tonight folks. Until tomorrow, best of luck.

11/3 IL Migration Report

Not a single migratory peep
in our skies

Hello again!

So, as predicted, strong southeasterly winds now hold a dominant position over Illinois, keeping migrants grounded. Literally almost nothing is showing up on the radar. So tomorrow, avifauna around the state should remain pretty much exactly the same.

Looking ahead, it appears that strong southerly-type winds will remain

Click to view live

dominant for the next couple of days, so today's birds will probably be Tuesday's birds too. We'll see what develops in the next couple days. For now, we have a great opportunity to survey birds on a multi-day basis, noting any behaviors or repeated use of food sources that will help you find/understand birds better next time. Like I like to say, get out there and be your own ornithologist!

Good stuff folks. Bon voyage.

11/2 IL Migration Report

Migration tonight

Click to view live

Hey all!

So as predicted (sort of), winds are super-weak tonight, lending themselves, or rather not lending themselves at all, to favorable conditions. Even if the winds were a little stronger, the forecast viewed yesterday was actually incorrect--winds have a very slight west/northwesterly tinge over much of the state. So, to our pleasure, the Prairie State is experiencing light to moderate migration over the entire state. Expect continuing migrants like White-throated Sparrows and later shorebirds to continue their travels, in addition to waterfowl, grebes, loons, gulls, American Tree Sparrows, Snow Buntings, Lapland Longspurs, et cetera, which will continue influxing. 

Cool! Looking forward a couple days, winds are forecast to turn southeasterly with a vengeance tomorrow, and will eventually become due southerly by Monday evening. We'll see how this plays out, but for now, make the best of tomorrow!

Good luck everyone, and happy birding.

11/1 IL Migration Report

Hey everybody, and a belated Happy Halloween,

In the wake of yesterday's very slight improvement of wind conditions for migration, much of the Prairie State is experiencing light, patchy precipitation. This means that, although winds may west/northwesterly in much of the state right now, the eastern half is essentially left out of the action right now--at least until the rain clears out. A preview of what's to come for those in the eastern part of the state can be seen in the western and far southern part of the state: moderate to heavy migration. So regardless of where you are, tomorrow morning may be fun for birders around the state. Keep your eyes on water bodies and open areas like beaches, farm fields, and prairies. Waterfowl, loons, grebes, as well as Snow Buntings, Lapland Longspurs, American Pipits, and American Tree Sparrows will all likely be influxing tomorrow. Predict what you'll find here. Cool.

Looking ahead a bit, through the passage of a confusing (set of) fronts tomorrow, tomorrow night will show

The wind direction split predicted for tomorrow night.

another split between eastern and western halves of the state. Unfavorable southwesterly winds will be over the western half, an favorable northwesterly winds will be over the eastern half. This winds, however, are forecast to be super weak, so migrants may be moving nonetheless.

Alrighty folks. Have a great night, and good luck tomorrow!

10/30 IL Migration Report

Most if not all of the noise over IL
right now is storm activity, leaving
little room for the birds.

Hello again,

Let's start by taking a look at the radar. Now let's look at the winds. Hmmm. Powerful southerly winds and storm activity blanketing the state. In about 5 seconds, we see that it's hardly even worth mentioning migration tonight, as winds and weather are so against it that even the craziest birds will probably be earth-bound tonight. So that's that.

Looking forward, the cold front from northwest of us predicted

Tonight's extremely
unfavorable winds.

yesterday is forecast to move into Illinois sometime late tomorrow morning. It will bring west/northwesterly winds, but more importantly will clear out most of tonight's precipitation. So tomorrow night, when winds will be predominantly westerly but with northerly twangs in some places, we will probably see a bit more migration. From there, we will probably see westerly winds remain dominant through Friday, and possibly longer.

Cool. Good luck everybody, and Bon Voyage.

Surface analysis forecast for early tomorrow afternoon.
Notice the cold front sweeping through and pushing the rain
eastward.

10/29 IL Migration Report

Take special note of the  low pressure system over Kansas right now

Evening friends,

Tonight's continental wind map. The arrow points to the
center of the Low Pressure system to our west. It will be
interesting to watch how it moves from a winds
perspective. Click to watch live.

So as predicted, we find ourselves smack dab in the center of a large area of southerly winds. And we're not talking southerly-ish winds from some weak high pressure that some migrants may still pass through. No, we're right in between a powerful high pressure system to the east (remember winds revolve clockwise around high pressure) and a large low pressure system to the west (remember winds revolve counterclockwise around low pressure). We can even see the center of the low pressure system over Kansas on the Wind Map. So we're getting a double-whammy again--southerly winds caused by high pressure, and southerly winds caused by low pressure. Needless to say, not much if anything is migrating tonight. So let's look forward, shall we?

48-hour forecast. Click to enlarge.
The yellow circle labels the low
pressure system currently over Kansas.
Notice how much it moved. The
blue arrows point out the
widespread precipitation.

Interestingly, the low pressure to our west I mentioned will be moving north and then east along the eastern edge of the Great Plains for the next couple of days. It's the system carrying the warm from the south that will move northward into Illinois tomorrow, bringing stronger southerly winds, lots precipitation, and continuing the migratory shutdown. In 48-hours, the center of this low pressure system will be sitting right over the western tip of Lake Superior, and the above mentioned warm front will be moving through Wisconsin. Widespread precipitation and super-powerful southerly winds will be the star of the show until another front from the low pressure system, this one cold, sweeps the precipitation away from northwest of us. Following it will be weak, northwesterly winds. So we'll see what happens then on Thursday night, but it will probably be an improvement from

This image is really useful: we can see the powerful southerly
winds forecast for IL on Thurs, depicted in yellow and
red, and the weaker NW winds entering the a cold front.

tonight and tomorrow night.

Good stuff all. Have a great night.

10/28 IL Migration Report

Tonight's all-important Surface Analysis

Hey folks!

So tonight, predictions about movements north of the cold front came true, with light to moderate migration over your head depending on where you are. However, there's also a pleasant surprise. Whereas winds were expected to be unfavorable south of today's cold front--now creeping south halfway through IL--winds are actually too weak to deter migration. So there's actually more migration occurring south of the cold front in Southern Illinois then there is north of the front! Fancy that.

Tonight's radar

So tomorrow morning then, expect more arrivals and influxes of more wintery species like American Tree Sparrows, Snow Buntings, Horned Larks, Lapland Longspurs, diving ducks, grebes, Common Loons, and of course, more gull species. Time to get those old gears turning again!

In the meantime, today's cold front will continue southward until it hits and stalls against a warm front just

The above mentioned warm front, after beating our current
cold front, forecast for 2 days from now.

south of the Prairie State. By tomorrow, the warm front from the south will actually win the standoff, and will make its way northward into our state, driven by low pressure. It will again meet and then beat out another cold front, and will probably make its way north of IL by Thursday. In its wake, we will be experiencing southerly winds (and stronger ones at that) and precipitation. So from here at least until the end of Wednesday, don't expect to many considerable movements.

Cool. Good luck and Bon Voyage!

10/26 IL Migration Report

Hey everybody,

So with the passage of today's cold front, we are again experiencing favorable migration conditions. And the migrants are taking advantage of it. Moderate to heavy migration is occurring in Illinois (as part of a large patch of such migration over some of the Midwest and the Great Plains) right now, so expect some legitimate arrivals and influxes tomorrow morning. As predicted yesterday, waterbirds will probably be part of this if not a big part. Keep your eyes peeled for arriving diving ducks, grebes, and loons. Also, reports of rarer gulls have been circulating around the state; we are edging closer to the time when scanning through gulls becomes a mainstay of our birding. Also, watch out for birds like Horned Larks, Lapland Longspurs, and Snow Buntings, as their numbers will also be increasing. Migrants that we've been seeing will be making their last pushes out, but they will still certainly be part of our lists.

The cold front forecast to bring
favorable northerly winds back into
our state.

Cool. Tonight's conditions will be short-lived, as by tomorrow morning, southerly winds will already be dominating our state. Sunday night will again be pretty dead. But never fear--a large and slow moving cold front is set to move into Illinois from due north of us, so Monday night will probably be witness to some more migration.

Good stuff everybody. Bon voyage.

10/25 IL Migration Report

Literally no migration

Hello again,

A short, late report tonight. As predicted, we are now on the backside of high pressure past east to the south of us, and this means we're experiencing unfavorable southerly winds. And as reflected by radar, pretty much nothing is migrating tonight.

But that also means were closer to tomorrow night's favorable conditions. Forecasts continue to show the passage of favorable north/northwesterly winds into our state by early tomorrow night, so expect some heavier movements then. These favorable conditions will dissipate into unfavorable southerly winds again by Sunday night, so make the best of any arrivals and influxes on Sunday morning. Especially keep an

High pressure shuts down migration as it leaves; low
pressure will bring up migration as it arrives.

eye out for raptors, waterbirds, and open country birds like Lapland Longspurs, American Tree Sparrows, and Horned Larks.

Good stuff. Happy trails all.

10/24 IL Migration Report

Hiya folks,

So I guess we'll start with the radar tonight. Blue, dark blue, and a bit of green indicate light to moderate migration, so tomorrow may be witness to influxes of juncos, Snow Buntings, various waterbirds, etc. 

But it gets more interesting than that. You see, winds tonight are northwesterly , which are highly favorable for southbound migration. We would expect--although it may be a little late for this expectation to begin with--heavy migration tonight, indicated by giant green spheroids on the radar. There are two reasons for this. The first is pretty simple: we're running out of migrants. The bulk of "Fall" migration will be fizzling out into December when southbound migration in the States could be said to be finished. 

The second reason is a little more interesting. Check out the surface analysis. We see a bunch of big H's. This means giant air cells of high pressure are oozing their way into our airspace. Though they may be bringing favorable winds, these, as mentioned before, are truly harbingers of winter at this time of year. They bring cold, harsh air without much lifting capacity to get birds going, and create conditions aloft that birds, especially at this time of year, seem to shy away from migrating in as much as they could be. Hawkwatchers especially will pick up on this, as raptor migration is practically shut down with conditions like these.

So that's that about that. These high pressure systems will take their sweet time in passing by us, and

Winds predicted for going into
Saturday night

then will be off east of us by Saturday. We will experience southerly flow tomorrow as we end up on the backside of the high pressure, whose winds revolve clockwise around it. But by Saturday night, Low Pressure System-driven fronts (both warm and cold), are set to pass through the Prairie State, bringing favorable northwesterly winds with it. So if I were to make any predictions on when to expect the most arrivals and influxes, I would put my money on Sunday morning.

Cool. Good luck everyone, and Bon Voyage.

10/22 IL Migration Report

Tonight's favorable winds. Click to
watch live.

Hey folks,

Conditions are pretty good over Illinois tonight; if we were to look alone at the winds over the Prairie State, we would think that there should be explosive movements over our heads right now. Fortunately or unfortunately, this isn't the case. Winter is slowly but surely creeping its way into our state, and with it comes many bouts of precipitation and areas of low visibility. Wherever these conditions exist in IL, a damper will be put on the birds in the air there. This could be what explains the strange paucity of any sort of color from the Central IL station, or the radar there could temporarily be disabled. If the former is the case, large areas of low visibility and precipitation should continue to keep birds down. If the latter is the case, Illinois is experiencing moderate migration right now. It's hard to tell which.

And yet...a strange lack of birds
in much of the state.

Regardless, keep your eyes peeled and your ears open for any arrivals

and influxes tomorrow. The latest BirdCast gives a handful of birds as a sampling of what's to come: Brant, Ring-necked Duck, Lesser Scaup, Bufflehead, Common Goldeneye, Black and White-winged Scoters, Hooded Merganser, Common Loon, Horned Grebe, American Tree Sparrow, Dark-eyed Junco, and Snow Bunting.

Cool. Looking forward with our trusty Wind Forecast, favorable north/northwesterly winds are forecast to continue for the next few days. This is many migrants best chance to escape the oncoming cold, so definitely expect them to use it. And things are looking very good for you hawkwatchers too. Although it's hard to top Swainson's Hawk and Golden Eagle IN ONE DAY, it will be interesting to see what pops up, and in what numbers.

Good stuff everyone. Bon voyage and happy trails.

10/21 IL Migration Report

BOOM! IL gets heavy migration to the
exclusion of almost every other state.

Hey everybody!

So lucky for us, Illinois is about the only state in the country covered by heavy migration right now. The cold front I mentioned a couple of days ago came through in the past few hours, and left us with weak yet northerly winds. These conditions along with the decreasing temperatures continue to spur migrants south of us. Everything from thrushes to sparrows should be making their final movements south of us providing that they're not winter residents, and more wintery species should be arriving in decent numbers some time soon. This means birders should keep an eye out for incoming diving ducks, any gulls of interest, increases in Junco numbers, and perhaps the first American Tree Sparrows. Also keep your eyes peeled for the first arriving Northern Shrikes and Snow Buntings. Predict what you'll be finding here: http://bit.ly/17nhLgM

Regardless, the radar's really glowing tonight. Somewhere around 1,000 birds are migrating per square kilometer over Illinois, so expect your local patch to be hoppin' tomorrow.

Looking into tomorrow and beyond, it appears that winds will become southerly and unfavorable tomorrow,

Winds forecast for tomorrow night

but never fear; winds are forecast to again be northerly by Tuesday night. From there, winds are forecast to remain northwesterly at least into Wednesday night.

Good stuff, folks. Happy birdings.

That cold front, now just leaving IL, left us with very favorable conditions for migration.

10/19 IL Migration Report

Hey everybody,

Unfortunately, we have a very short story for tonight. Strong southerly winds are dominant in our state right now, and as such almost nothing is migrating over us right now. So that's that.

Winds forecast for when the cold
front moves into IL

Looking ahead, a cold front from northwest of us is forecast to move into the state a little after midnight tomorrow night, which will bring highly favorable conditions. Depending on how quickly it moves, Northwestern or even much of Northern IL may experience moderate to heavy migration at some point tomorrow night. Northwest winds are forecast to persist at least into Monday night, so we may see some considerable

migration then.

Good stuff. Bon voyage, everyone.

10/17 (and some 10/18) IL Migration Report

Hey all,

So just a heads up, I won't be able to do any reporting tomorrow night, so I will be reporting on tonight and tomorrow night now.

Anyway, the tables have turned from yesterday. Winds are still splitting the state in half, but this time the weak, undirected winds providing little headwind are in the Northern half of the state, whereas stronger, unfavorable southerly winds are present over the Southern half of the state. This means that tonight, migration will be light to moderate in Northern IL, whereas it will be almost nonexistent in Southerly IL. Make any predictions as to what you may find out there here.

Tomorrow, we while again hail the arrival of another front carrying

Super-weak winds in N. IL as of
11:03 PM Central

westerly winds, and for a time these will be northwesterly in most of the state. However, by tomorrow night when most passerines are migrating, winds will only be northwesterly in the southerly half of the state. Expect some light migration in the northern half, and more moderate movements in the southern half.

Looking further in the Wind Forecast, after a Saturday of strong southwesterly winds, winds will become northwesterly in Northern IL, and should facilitate some movement there Saturday night.

Lots of state splitting from a winds perspective.

That's all for tonight, folks. Good luck and bon voyage.

10/16 IL Migration Report

The clear division of heavier
vs. lighter migration in
Southern and Northern IL,
respectively.

Hey folks,

Tonight, an occurrence that popped up much more during this year's spring migration has again reared its ugly head. Winds have been divided fairly clearly between the northern and the southern halves of the state, with winds mostly westerly in the north, and northwesterly in the south. So right now, looking at the radar, we see that northern IL is experiencing light migration, while southern IL is experiencing moderate to heavy migration. So if you're in this southern half of the state, you may wake up to some nice arrivals and influxes. Make predictions as to what you'll find here.

Looking at the wind forecast, overall we see nothing but continued westerly and southwesterly winds at least through Friday, so don't expect any huge arrivals at least through then.

And that's all for tonight folks. Happy Trails.

10/14 IL Migration Report

UPDATE: High Pressure System moves east; storm front over Great Plains
bring Westerly winds in our direction.

Evening folks,

Tonight is witness to the slow eastward passage of yesterday's high pressure, placing us in the influence of southeasterly winds. As a result of this unfavorable wind direction, movements are relatively paltry over IL right now, with light migration at best in northeastern and Southernmost IL. So, don't expect any huge changes in tomorrow's avifauna.

Looking forward a couple days then, it seems that along with a large storm front, westerly to northwesterly winds will again find their way into IL by tomorrow night. Luckily for us, it seems that we only have a couple days' hiatus from substantial migration.

Awesome. Have a great night all.

10/13 IL Migration Report

That big H over Wisconsin is a harbinger of colder times to come.

Hello again,

So tonight we hail the arrival of a continental-polar high pressure system, oozing into the Midwest from the North, bringing its frosty air and oh-so-confused and weak winds. These winds, providing little in the way of headwinds, are urging migrants on their way, and as a result it would be safe to say that Illinois is experiencing heavy migration tonight. To migrants, and to meteorologists, this system is a harbinger of colder times to come--systems like this cold-beckoning behemoth are what define winter in places at our latitude, and migrants would be doing themselves a favor to avoid it all together. So the struggle southward continues,  as migrants race the cold south until they escape its influence all together, and stay within the realm of their invertebrate prey.

Tonight's migration, while depicted a little melodramatically, helps to illustrate the wholly different challenges migrants come into contact with during "Fall" Migration, in stark contrast to the Spring.

Starting tomorrow, winds are forecast to become predominantly easterly, and gradually by Tuesday, are forecast to become southerly with a vengeance. There does appear to be a predicted arrival of westerly winds late on Tuesday, so we'll see what happens with that.

Anyway, that's all for tonight, folks. Here's to migrants beating the cold.