9/30 IL Migration Report

Note the high pressure system forecast to be in WI

Hey all,

So in spite of yesterday's little bits of excitement, tonight migration in IL is pretty much entirely shut down thanks to strong southerly winds. So again, I don't have too much material for tonight.

For Northern IL, however there may be a little excitement tomorrow night. Winds will remain southerly in most of the state, but looking at the 48-hour surface analysis, we see a high-pressure system bringing a cold front from the north/northwest. As it appears that this system will move through rather quickly, the favorable northerly winds forecast to follow this cold front will only ever make it into the northern

About the extent of northerly winds
forecast for northern IL tomorrow
night.

half of the state, and will be relatively short-lived. Tomorrow night, with impeccable timing for northern IL birders, is forecast to come under the influence of these winds some time in between 7 PM and 10 PM. So from that point on tomorrow night, Northern IL will likely see light to moderate migration.

Cool. I'll be ready.

9/29 IL Migration Report

That band of blue in Southern IL
and IA tells a fascinating story.

Hey everybody,

So tonight, things are relatively mediocre throughout the state, as high pressure has moved in and pushed away any winds with it. Though light migration is occurring right now in response to the lack of headwind, this isn't what steals the show. What steals the show is a tiny and weak low pressure system in Southern IL and IA, which is bringing a fascinating migratory response (see below).

On this surface analysis, you can see a southward-facing cold front in Southern IL right next to a northward-facing warm front in Indiana. In between these front lines is a tiny low pressure center (remember winds revolve counterclockwise around Low Pressure systems). Its winds extend about as far from its center as these two specific warm and cold front lines extend. Its winds are almost indistinguishable from the high pressure over NE IL they are so weak, but they're just barely strong enough that the southward facing cold front is followed by northerly winds favorable for migration. So, as a result, a narrow band of heavy migration is occurring just north of the given cold front--restricted entirely to the narrow area of favorable conditions. A few other patches of migration are occurring around this band; these are likely birds responding to the combination of weak winds from the high pressure and the northerly winds to the west of the low pressure system, but these areas of migration are a bit more mysterious. Isn't this all friggin' awesome! I love this stuff. 

Regardless, southern Illinois should notice some arrivals and influxes tomorrow morning.

Looking in what has repeatedly been a depressing wind forecast, it looks like the theme will be retained until Tuesday evening. At that point, it appears that another front will be passing in Illinois from northwest of us. Until then, expect migration to be occurring in light increments until southerly headwinds take over some time tomorrow afternoon.

Good stuff. That low pressure system was pretty exciting.

9/28 IL Migration Report

This cold front is big news, see?

Hey everyone!

Tonight, as the southeast-bound cold front moves through our state, it will slowly but surely bring more favorable conditions for migration (northwesterly winds). Already, west of the front, moderate to heavy movements are springing up on the radar, which only serves as a prequel to conditions here after the storm front passes over. So that leaves one question: how long will it take for the storm front to pass through IL? This is hard to say, but it seems like at the speed this front has been moving, it's likely that the front will be through the easternmost parts of Illinois by sunrise tomorrow, but I can't make any guarantees. Regardless of where it's at tomorrow, western Illinois is already out of the storm front according to my WeatherBug Radar, which means that birds are already moving out there. Any areas west of the storms with enough time left for birds to migrate tonight will likely

Migration west of the storm front, where winds are
favorably northwesterly, heavy movements are already
occurring. These movements will be in IL anywhere that
storms clear out of quickly enough.

see arrivals and influxes of everything from flycatchers to warblers to sparrows, and Western IL will be on the forefront of this.

Unfortunately, it seems that these favorable northerly winds are only set to last through tomorrow evening at the latest. At that point northerly winds, though weak, are forecast to take over the state starting in the north and making their way to the south. Looking at the Intellicast Wind Forecast, these winds will last at least through Monday, and probably longer.

Moral of the story: tomorrow morning is likely going to be the biggest period in these next few days for migration providing the storm front leaves time for any movements. So get out there! You may be pleasantly surprised...

Good luck, everyone!

9/27 IL Migration Report

The passage of the cold front depicted in this 36-hour
surface analysis forecast is the biggest news in tonight's
report.

Hey friends, 

Another short'n tonight. Southeasterly winds again are dominating the state and are putting a damper on most migration. We can thank the combined influence of high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west for that. That's that for tonight, I guess.

Tomorrow, a more major and favorable change will occur sometime around 7 PM, as a cold front will push southeast through IL starting in the northwestern corner of the state. This front will bring definite

Wind forecast for 10 PM tomorrow,
depicting the movement of the cold
front in from the northwest.

north/northwesterly winds, and will likely facilitate some heavy movements. So Sunday morning might just be what we're waiting for.

Cool. I'm excited!

9/26 IL Migration Report

Hey all,

Short report tonight. With the exception of Southern Illinois where winds are too weak to deter migration, things are pretty dead over our heads right now. East/southeasterly winds from large areas of high pressure over the East are keep birds on the ground tonight, so not much to report on there.

As far as my wind forecasts go, it looks like Southerly winds will remain dominant the next 2 days, lasting at least through Saturday. Winds are forecast to be strongest and most directly from the south on Saturday. so it seems likely that this weekend will be unfavorable as a whole for migrants. My version of a sob story.

So that's that about that, you guys. Keep on keepin' on.

Tonight's surface analysis.

9/25 IL Migration Report

Winds at the time of this post.

Hey all,

Things are starting to change tonight. Slowly but surely, easterly winds

around Illinois are taking on a northerly tinge. I can't really explain this when looking at surface analysis, but I can tell that it's facilitating more migration tonight than it did last night. Light migration is occurring over the Prairie State right now, foreshadowing arrivals and influxes of thrushes, warblers, and sparrows (oh my!) tomorrow. Along with them, the next few days may see the first arrivals of species set to arrive in October, like Juncos, some blackbirds, and some waterfowl. Chances are though, that there will only be slight influxes tomorrow and no major arrivals. Keep your eyes peeled nonetheless.

Tomorrow night will quickly put an end to this, as southerly winds, likely from a large low pressure system over the rockies, will put a halt to any migration. It'll be a headwind aloft of 20 mph in some places, and migrants no likey that. So we'll push on through tomorrow, and see what Friday night brings from there.

Good stuff. Go team.

9/24 IL Migration Report

Hey everyone!

So again, like last night, Illinois is experiencing very little migration tonight because of unfavorable due easterly winds. The radar's pretty dim folks. Get used to it too. Though the northern third of the state (it may even be as specific as northeastern Illinois) may get some northeasterly winds tomorrow night, easterly/southeasterly winds are set to continue at least through Thursday. So the birds will be fattening up again for the next few days, and maybe making some very short movements here and there. Stronger fliers will probably be migrating nonetheless, as some relatively larger migrants still have a ways to go and have no time to lose (American Golden-Plovers still have to make it all the way to the highlands of Argentina!). Regardless, don't expect any huge movements at least as far in the future as the wind forecast predicts.

How about a bit of meteorology? Looking at the surface analysis, it's actually quite simple to see why we are having and will be having easterly winds for a while. First, look at the Low Pressure center--the big "L" just west of IL. Revolve your cursor counterclockwise around the L. This illustrates the direction that winds are rotating around Low Pressure systems, and based on its position to the west of us (and the system just south of the aforementioned one), we can see that IL is placed in perfect position to get easterly winds. Next, look at the the high pressure system over lake Huron--the big "H". Revolve your cursor clockwise around the H, and you will see how winds are revolving around it. Its winds extend a little further than the Low pressure systems, and again we're in position to receive easterly winds from its influence. Isn't that cool?! Just by looking at surface analysis, you can predict what winds places anywhere will be getting. All it takes is understanding how winds rotate around low pressure systems (counterclockwise) and high pressure systems (clockwise). 

Anyway, we can see that we're getting a double whammy of easterly winds from 2 to 3 systems: the high pressure system over Lake Huron, and the low pressure systems west and southwest of us. It'll be a while, folks.

Cool. Here's to fat, healthy migrants, and maybe finding a few of 'em too.

9/23 IL Migration Report

High pressure's still causing slow, southerly winds...not
much to report here.

Hey all,

So, you guys, again Illinois is mostly without migration. Strong southeasterly winds are effectively shutting down most if not all bird migration over IL, so we won't have much to talk about in the way of predictions.

Wind forecasts are a little bright for some of us Illinoisans. It looks like by 2 to 4 AM Wednesday morning, winds are forecast to be northeasterly in the Northern third of the state. These winds are set to be super weak at this stage, so don't expect too much movement as the wind won't be heading in the perfect direction, and it won't be much additional lift for the migrants. Other than that, I can't tell you much...yet. We'll see what pops up in the forecast as the week moves on.

Good stuff. Happy birding, all.

9/21-22 IL Migration Report

Hey everyone!

Migration Friday Night

Sorry I missed y'all last night. Yesterday and last night definitely deserved my attention, but I guess better late than never!

Starting with what would've been the 9/21 report, migration was explosive Friday, really breathtaking even looking at radar. In the wake of the large southeast-bound storm front, migrants moved in huge numbers. Yesterday, though I couldn't get out there with you, was reportedly a magnificent day to be birding. Patches of green or blue all over the Prairie State were ripe with birds, and many if not most lists seemed to report more than 50 species. That's legitimate migration if you ask me. Warbler numbers, though high, weren't even half the show. Geese are definitely moving, although at this point they are primarily Canadas. Raptors were moving in good numbers, with Peregrines appearing to be peaking in their migration. Shorebirds are still making their way out of the state; most are some of the more common species like Spotted Sandpiper. Thrushes were moving in peak numbers, especially Swainson's Thrush, which always seems to be the majority. Vireos like Blue-headed and Philadelphia were on the move. Winter Wrens and kinglets, two typically late migrants, are starting to influx. Sparrows such a White-throated are influxing, although the highlight in this family has got to be the Ammodramus: Nelson's, Le Conte's, and Henslow's are quietly skulking their way through the state. Lapland Longspurs have arrived just to sweeten the deal. Overall a great variety of birds yesterday.

Migration last night (Saturday Night)

Today was very similar to yesterday, although last night held a bit less migration, counter to prediction. Regardless, a very similar species variety was present today, and once again many lists reported more than 50 species. These same species will be present for probably the next week or so; the interesting part is watching while some of these species dwindle in numbers while others grow. Good stuff, you guys.

Tonight, once again, a high pressure system to the north is being a party-pooper. At this point, we are positioned under its influence such that we are receiving easterly winds over much of the state. By tomorrow, winds are set to shift to southeasterly and will remain there at least through Tuesday, putting even more of a damper on our migration party.

Compare to tonight

So that's that about that. We still have lots of great birds around, and there's always the possibility of vagrants, so here's to getting out there and discovering stuff.

(Also, just a heads up, Ron Pittaway's Winter Finch Forecast, which is highly relevant to migration, came out today: http://www.jeaniron.ca/2013/forecast.htm)

Bon voyage, everyone.

The High Pressure system to the north, whose winds rotate clockwise around it, is currently giving us easterly winds.
Tomorrow, the winds will be southeasterly.

9/20 IL Migration Report

To quote Matthew Cvetas from
Illinois Birders' Forum, BA BAM!

Holy cow, you guys.

The radar just blew my socks off...IL along with much of the midwest is coated with green right now, indicating heavy migration. Per cubic kilometer at flight altitude, there may be up to 2,000 birds migrating southward, taking advantage of northwest winds and heading on south. I hesitate to say this, but I'm not sure IL as a whole has gotten migration as good as tonight's yet this fall migration. The best part is, conditions still have the potential to be even better tomorrow. Keep your eyes on the winds, ladies and gentlemen.

That is, when you get done with keeping your eyes on all the birds tomorrow, which may be a lofty goal. Expect large arrivals and influxes especially of thrushes and warblers as they make their final movements out of the state. Swainson's Thrushes will probably be water-drip-ing from anything plant in some areas, with Gray-cheekeds, Veeries, and even some Hermit Thrushes mixed in. Warbler variety should be decent tomorrow as well, as earlier migrants, like Black-and-White Warbler, are making their last movements out, and later migrants, like Orange-crowned Warbler, are starting to influx. Also expect the arrival of some later migrant passerines like kinglets, Brown Creepers, and sparrows (especially White-throated). But passerines

Winds over some of IL...amazingly,
these aren't as good as they come,
but the migrants are taking what they
can get.

are not the whole story. New herons may be popping up in your local patch. It may be a very productive day at the hawkwatch. An added assortment of waterfowl may start popping up in wet places. And of course shorebirds will be moving as well. Overall, we've got a lot to look forward to tomorrow...maybe even a western vagrant of one sort or another. We shall see, my friends.

Good luck everyone!

9/18 IL Migration Report

There is hardly anything
here to indicate birds
migrating, sadly.

Hey everybody,

So again, we don't have a ton to talk about here tonight, except for the the fact that winds are straight southerly tonight. But that's about it. You see, because of this, hardly anything, if anything at all, will be doing any long-distance migration tonight. So far the radar reflects this. Same old story.

Current winds over some of IL

Luckily, we do have some little forecast bits to talk about. It looks like by the end of Friday, winds are forecast to be northwesterly in most of the state, which is much more conducive to migration that anything up until then. Expect rather dismal migration tomorrow night, but hopefully, if this forecast holds true, migration will return to the Prairie State on Friday.

Winds forecast for 7 PM on Friday

Cool. Here's to that, everybody.

9/19 IL Migration Report

Current winds over IL

One more day, everyone.

Though winds are straight southerly tonight, winds will finally return to a northerly direction by tomorrow. These winds will be west-northwest tomorrow night, which isn't the most ideal wind pattern for migration...the real big story is Saturday night, when winds will be coming from due north. Expect the highest concentration of migration for this week to occur saturday night, even if the winds are a little weak.

So until tomorrow night, migration will be as dismal as it is tonight. At least we see the light at the end of the tunnel!

Winds forecast for 7 PM on Sat.

Cool! Good luck, everyone.

9/17 IL Migration Report

Hey everyone,

So tonight makes another night without much to write about. Winds are southeasterly right now, and are thus unfavorable for migration. Radar of IL reflects this, with almost nothing moving tonight. These southerly winds are forecast to continue through Thursday at least, so the migrants will be having yet another period to fatten up and rest for the next few days.

Regardless, there should still be a nice variety of species out there if you find the right areas, and as stated yesterday, vagrants can show up anywhere with fair frequency this time of year, so keep your eyes peeled when you get out there. I know mine will.

Have a great night everybody.

The surface analysis of what air masses will be defining migration in the
next week.

9/16 IL Migration Report

Tonight's surface analysis is the most important part of this report; that
high pressure system over Lake Huron will be defining our winds for the
next few days.

Hey folks!

So tonight, as predicted, the winds have become predominantly easterly in direction, with a very very slight northerly twang to it. This wind shift has resulted from the movement of a high pressure into the east; Illinois happens to be in the portion of its influence (clockwise rotating winds) where winds are coming from the east. Unfortunately, as the high pressure system seems to be moving southward, the prairie state will be experiencing unfavorable southerly winds by tomorrow morning. These southerly winds are forecast to continue at least through Wednesday, so migration will a be a little strained if not delayed the next few days.

Tonight, though the radar in NE IL is still down, it appears that we are experiencing light to moderate migration right now, which is headed predominantly southwest with tonight's winds. This will probably be the last night we see this scale of movement for the next few days, so I guess it's time to get personal with the migrants in your local patch! As you well know, these migrants could be an number of hummingbirds, flycatchers, thrushes, vireos, kinglets, warblers, cardinalids, or warblers. Also, as the vagrancy part of fall migration is really starting to set in, keep your eyes peeled for any weird birds. They could turn out to be the best kind of weird.

Cheers and happy birding.

9/15 IL Migration Report

From a winds perspective, the cold front and Low pressure
in the center of the state are doing good things for us.
Strangely, it seems the birds don't think so...yet.

Hey everyone!

So it appears that the northerly winds--and the cold front driving them--came a little earlier than predicted today; anywhere north of today's storm front right now is currently experiencing northerly winds. These winds, while highly favorable for migration, do not appear to be picking up much migration, with barely any to light migration north of the front. Reasons for this are beyond me, although they may have something to do with rain or other weather occurring in the wake of the cold front. It is very possible that later tonight birds will begin moving in greater numbers, so it's not a bad idea to, if you'll being staying up tonight, keep an eye on the radar to watch for any bursts. You may be pleasantly surprised.

Click to enlarge. Winds north of the
cold front are stronger (green), and
more northerly.

Birds with potential to migrate tonight include but are not limited to flycatchers, vireos, thrushes (especially Swainson's), warblers, and sparrows (primarily White-throated and Lincoln's). Make your own predictions as to what will be moving here.

A strange sparsity of
migration north of the cold/
storm front

Tomorrow, northerly winds will continue through around midday, when they will begin to shift to a weaker, more easterly direction. By tomorrow night, winds will be entirely easterly. Tomorrow afternoon may be interesting on the lakefront for shorebird movements, as winds shifting from northerly to easterly may bring more birds in toward the shore. We shall see.

Anyway, that's all for tonight, folks! Happy birding!

9/14 IL Migration Report

The High Pressure System east of us, and the clockwise
rotation of winds around it is to blame for our unfavorable
southerly winds. 

Hey folks,

Tonight we see the return of stronger southerly winds dominating the state, effectively shutting down most migration. So as happens frequently with the ups and downs of migration, I won't have a whole lot to write about tonight. Looking at the wind forecast, it looks like these winds won't last too long, as northerly winds are set to return sometime on Monday.

There were, however, some very cool things that don't have to do with migration that happened today. Two pelagic-type jaunts happened today, one of which was the IOS Carlyle Lake Pelagic; so far, I haven't heard any of the results of the trip, but I'm sure we'll hear all about it tomorrow. The second was a pelagic on Lake Michigan (in Berrien County, MI) with Nathan Goldberg, Geoff Williamson, Steve Huggins, Greg Neise, and Josh Engel. Their results include a Long-tailed Jaeger and a Sabine's Gull. It just comes to show that being in the middle of a continent doesn't mean we don't know our two cents about pelagics! Finally, just because I'm obsessed with eBird, the eBird Team released another data visualization function today that is all about eBird hotspots. Here's a demonstration of that data from Montrose. It's all about helping you find good sites to bird at rather than finding specific species, and that's something I'm pretty excited by.

Cool! Have a good night everybody.

9/13 IL Migration Report

Hey all!

So tonight we see the continuation of last night's northerly flow, though the migration is not nearly as heavy. The reasons for this are not entirely clear, but looking at the surface analysis, incoming high pressure may be part of it (http://bit.ly/ZmucFO). By tomorrow afternoon, winds will have shifted away from their northerly inclination and toward quite the opposite, by then coming from the south as the high pressure rushes through the east (http://bit.ly/16ZQvnN). This high pressure is forecast to leave us with southerly winds at least through Sunday, so tonight's light to moderate migration (http://bit.ly/17tHzi) may be as heavy as it gets for a couple days. At least we got one night of madness!

Birding will still likely be very good tomorrow because of the heavy movements last night; large varieties and numbers were reported across the state, the east, and the country today, and with migratory conditions still relatively good tonight, we should still see nice numbers of migrant woodpeckers, hummingbirds, flycatchers, vireos, thrushes, warblers, and sparrows tomorrow.

Cool! Good luck everyone!

9/12 IL Migration Report

Hey folks!

So finally, for tonight, everything's coming together. Cold fronts or pushing in from the north, and with them, strong and favorable northerly winds are aloft. To top that off, things are mostly clear in much of the state, so migratory conditions tonight are really about as good as they're going to get.

And no surprise, the birds are using it up tonight, with heavy migration present over the entire state. The time is nigh, my friends. Tomorrow morning should be bursting with bird activity at your local patch, so if you can, get out there and get your fixin' of flycatchers, vireos, thrushes, warblers, sparrows, and all the migratory passerine goodness filling our skies right now. Raptors, shorebirds, and ducks should also be migrating tomorrow, as strong northerly winds are forecast to last at least through the day tomorrow if not tomorrow night. Make your own predictions as to which species or genera could be found tomorrow by looking at the eBird Master list here.

Winds...click to see live

Awesome! Have a good night everybody. Tomorrow morning should be awesome.

9/11 IL Migration Report

Me likey these cold fronts...more northerly winds to come

Hey everybody!

So tonight marks the beginning of the hole in the metaphorical tunnel. A cold front passed/is passing through today, but rather than bring northerly winds, they brought primarily westerly winds. Weird, right? Luckily, there's just enough of a northerly tinge that birds north of the front are moving...and they are indeed spring loaded. Northerly IL is getting moderate to heavy migration right now. The coolest part of this is that the storm line carried right above the cold front is visible on radar, so we can clearly see the cutoff

Check out the madness in Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Minnesota...that could be us tomorrow. Also
notice the storm line faintly dividing better and
worst (north and south respectively) in migration.

between good enough and bad migratory conditions; there's so much migration north of the storm line, and much less below. This is cool stuff guys!

Even more luckily for us, multiple cold fronts north of the one in-state now are headed our direction, and it looks like by tomorrow afternoon, the state will be dominated by northerly winds!! So even more than tonight in IL, expect tomorrow night to hold an absolute explosion of migration. I'm expecting some green on the radar--just look at Wisconsin, which is about a day ahead of us in these weather systems. They're getting migration at epic proportions. Gosh I'm excited.

So tomorrow morning, expect arrivals and influxes of hummingbirds, flycatchers, vireos, thrushes, warblers, and some sparrows in areas north of the southbound cold front. Tomorrow night, the whole state will get the big kahuna.

Good stuff all. Until tomorrow.

9/10 IL Migration Report

Tonight

Hey folks!

So tonight, yet again, we have southerly winds allowing only light migration to occur. But luckily for us, the light at the end of the tunnel is near. Looking at the current surface analysis, we see a cold front inching its way slowly southward. It is forecast to begin making its way through the prairie state tomorrow during the day, when it will cause considerable weirdness as far as winds go. But it looks like by tomorrow night, we will see the return of northerly winds--confused and weak nonetheless--in Illinois, finally facilitating moderate to heavy movements of birds. We'll see what happens as the winds aren't the perfect conditions, merely good, but there could be an explosion of birds in the radar tomorrow--they've gotten a considerable amount of time to fatten up (providing they found a good stopover), and should practically be spring-loaded by now. Just look at Southwest WI tonight as an example. I'm excited. How 'bout you?

Tomorrow night

Don't get too excited, this is SW
Wisconsin tonight...us tomorrow?

So one more day folks, and then things will start to look up. Expect more flycatchers, vireos, many more thrushes, warblers, cardinalids, and even the arrival of White-throated and Lincoln's Sparrows. If arrivals and influxes do happen tomorrow night, they should be obvious. Make your own predictions using the master list here.

Cool! Have a great night everybody.

That cold front in Wisconsin has our name on it.

9/9 IL Migration Report

Hey everybody,

So tonight, strong southerly winds dominating the state, once again, are reducing bird migration to a very light level. Amazingly, these small numbers of birds are still pushing on with a fairly consistent southwestbound pattern, so some influxes may be evident tomorrow. Regardless, we'll still be adding another day to this long-lasting period of fattening up for migrants.

Looking forward a few days, it still looks like a southbound cold front will make its way through our state, bringing some sort of northerly winds with it. Things may get a little more exciting then (Wednesday night-ish), but we'll see.

Sadly, that's all I've got to work with tonight! Here's hoping for some big weather changes, and some heavy movements.

Until tomorrow, au revoir!

Hope comes in the form of a cold front

9/8 (and some 9/7) IL Migration Report

Winds in IL...click to see live

Hey everyone,

My apologies for not posting last night...a trip to and from Carlyle all the way from Chicago in one day really takes it out of you. Then again, no one should complain about this, an awesome photo of Saturday's highlight by Ron Bradley.

Anyhow, last night was interesting because like tonight, most of the state was dominated by fairly weak southerly winds. But unlike tonight, the northern parts of the prairie state experienced easterly winds with enough of a northerly twang to get birds moving. We got a nice variety of new birds from out east, not the least of which was a Black-legged Kittiwake at McGinnis Slough. Warblers and some other passerines also seemed to influx.

Tonight, the state overall has worse conditions overall from a meteorological perspective; the north of the state is now dominated by strong easterlies, and the rest of the state is dominated by southerlies. Birds seem to be moving in light concentrations tonight, and this will likely increase very slightly

IL Migration at time of
posting.

through the night, but there's also a lot of noise in the radar over Illinois, and I'm not sure all of it is birds. We need a doppler radar expert here to interpret it. Queue quest speaker of Tom Skilling...(wishful thinking).

Looking forward in time, Southerly winds are forecast to continue at least through Tuesday, but looking at that day on Surface Analysis, it looks like a cold front from the north may change up the winds. We shall see, my friends.

To predict what sorts of birds to be looking for, see the master list here.

Until tomorrow, over and out.

Surface Analysis 48-hour Forecast...is anyone else excited by that cold front?