10/30 IL Migration Report

Most if not all of the noise over IL
right now is storm activity, leaving
little room for the birds.

Hello again,

Let's start by taking a look at the radar. Now let's look at the winds. Hmmm. Powerful southerly winds and storm activity blanketing the state. In about 5 seconds, we see that it's hardly even worth mentioning migration tonight, as winds and weather are so against it that even the craziest birds will probably be earth-bound tonight. So that's that.

Looking forward, the cold front from northwest of us predicted

Tonight's extremely
unfavorable winds.

yesterday is forecast to move into Illinois sometime late tomorrow morning. It will bring west/northwesterly winds, but more importantly will clear out most of tonight's precipitation. So tomorrow night, when winds will be predominantly westerly but with northerly twangs in some places, we will probably see a bit more migration. From there, we will probably see westerly winds remain dominant through Friday, and possibly longer.

Cool. Good luck everybody, and Bon Voyage.

Surface analysis forecast for early tomorrow afternoon.
Notice the cold front sweeping through and pushing the rain
eastward.

10/29 IL Migration Report

Take special note of the  low pressure system over Kansas right now

Evening friends,

Tonight's continental wind map. The arrow points to the
center of the Low Pressure system to our west. It will be
interesting to watch how it moves from a winds
perspective. Click to watch live.

So as predicted, we find ourselves smack dab in the center of a large area of southerly winds. And we're not talking southerly-ish winds from some weak high pressure that some migrants may still pass through. No, we're right in between a powerful high pressure system to the east (remember winds revolve clockwise around high pressure) and a large low pressure system to the west (remember winds revolve counterclockwise around low pressure). We can even see the center of the low pressure system over Kansas on the Wind Map. So we're getting a double-whammy again--southerly winds caused by high pressure, and southerly winds caused by low pressure. Needless to say, not much if anything is migrating tonight. So let's look forward, shall we?

48-hour forecast. Click to enlarge.
The yellow circle labels the low
pressure system currently over Kansas.
Notice how much it moved. The
blue arrows point out the
widespread precipitation.

Interestingly, the low pressure to our west I mentioned will be moving north and then east along the eastern edge of the Great Plains for the next couple of days. It's the system carrying the warm from the south that will move northward into Illinois tomorrow, bringing stronger southerly winds, lots precipitation, and continuing the migratory shutdown. In 48-hours, the center of this low pressure system will be sitting right over the western tip of Lake Superior, and the above mentioned warm front will be moving through Wisconsin. Widespread precipitation and super-powerful southerly winds will be the star of the show until another front from the low pressure system, this one cold, sweeps the precipitation away from northwest of us. Following it will be weak, northwesterly winds. So we'll see what happens then on Thursday night, but it will probably be an improvement from

This image is really useful: we can see the powerful southerly
winds forecast for IL on Thurs, depicted in yellow and
red, and the weaker NW winds entering the a cold front.

tonight and tomorrow night.

Good stuff all. Have a great night.

10/28 IL Migration Report

Tonight's all-important Surface Analysis

Hey folks!

So tonight, predictions about movements north of the cold front came true, with light to moderate migration over your head depending on where you are. However, there's also a pleasant surprise. Whereas winds were expected to be unfavorable south of today's cold front--now creeping south halfway through IL--winds are actually too weak to deter migration. So there's actually more migration occurring south of the cold front in Southern Illinois then there is north of the front! Fancy that.

Tonight's radar

So tomorrow morning then, expect more arrivals and influxes of more wintery species like American Tree Sparrows, Snow Buntings, Horned Larks, Lapland Longspurs, diving ducks, grebes, Common Loons, and of course, more gull species. Time to get those old gears turning again!

In the meantime, today's cold front will continue southward until it hits and stalls against a warm front just

The above mentioned warm front, after beating our current
cold front, forecast for 2 days from now.

south of the Prairie State. By tomorrow, the warm front from the south will actually win the standoff, and will make its way northward into our state, driven by low pressure. It will again meet and then beat out another cold front, and will probably make its way north of IL by Thursday. In its wake, we will be experiencing southerly winds (and stronger ones at that) and precipitation. So from here at least until the end of Wednesday, don't expect to many considerable movements.

Cool. Good luck and Bon Voyage!

10/26 IL Migration Report

Hey everybody,

So with the passage of today's cold front, we are again experiencing favorable migration conditions. And the migrants are taking advantage of it. Moderate to heavy migration is occurring in Illinois (as part of a large patch of such migration over some of the Midwest and the Great Plains) right now, so expect some legitimate arrivals and influxes tomorrow morning. As predicted yesterday, waterbirds will probably be part of this if not a big part. Keep your eyes peeled for arriving diving ducks, grebes, and loons. Also, reports of rarer gulls have been circulating around the state; we are edging closer to the time when scanning through gulls becomes a mainstay of our birding. Also, watch out for birds like Horned Larks, Lapland Longspurs, and Snow Buntings, as their numbers will also be increasing. Migrants that we've been seeing will be making their last pushes out, but they will still certainly be part of our lists.

The cold front forecast to bring
favorable northerly winds back into
our state.

Cool. Tonight's conditions will be short-lived, as by tomorrow morning, southerly winds will already be dominating our state. Sunday night will again be pretty dead. But never fear--a large and slow moving cold front is set to move into Illinois from due north of us, so Monday night will probably be witness to some more migration.

Good stuff everybody. Bon voyage.

10/25 IL Migration Report

Literally no migration

Hello again,

A short, late report tonight. As predicted, we are now on the backside of high pressure past east to the south of us, and this means we're experiencing unfavorable southerly winds. And as reflected by radar, pretty much nothing is migrating tonight.

But that also means were closer to tomorrow night's favorable conditions. Forecasts continue to show the passage of favorable north/northwesterly winds into our state by early tomorrow night, so expect some heavier movements then. These favorable conditions will dissipate into unfavorable southerly winds again by Sunday night, so make the best of any arrivals and influxes on Sunday morning. Especially keep an

High pressure shuts down migration as it leaves; low
pressure will bring up migration as it arrives.

eye out for raptors, waterbirds, and open country birds like Lapland Longspurs, American Tree Sparrows, and Horned Larks.

Good stuff. Happy trails all.

10/24 IL Migration Report

Hiya folks,

So I guess we'll start with the radar tonight. Blue, dark blue, and a bit of green indicate light to moderate migration, so tomorrow may be witness to influxes of juncos, Snow Buntings, various waterbirds, etc. 

But it gets more interesting than that. You see, winds tonight are northwesterly , which are highly favorable for southbound migration. We would expect--although it may be a little late for this expectation to begin with--heavy migration tonight, indicated by giant green spheroids on the radar. There are two reasons for this. The first is pretty simple: we're running out of migrants. The bulk of "Fall" migration will be fizzling out into December when southbound migration in the States could be said to be finished. 

The second reason is a little more interesting. Check out the surface analysis. We see a bunch of big H's. This means giant air cells of high pressure are oozing their way into our airspace. Though they may be bringing favorable winds, these, as mentioned before, are truly harbingers of winter at this time of year. They bring cold, harsh air without much lifting capacity to get birds going, and create conditions aloft that birds, especially at this time of year, seem to shy away from migrating in as much as they could be. Hawkwatchers especially will pick up on this, as raptor migration is practically shut down with conditions like these.

So that's that about that. These high pressure systems will take their sweet time in passing by us, and

Winds predicted for going into
Saturday night

then will be off east of us by Saturday. We will experience southerly flow tomorrow as we end up on the backside of the high pressure, whose winds revolve clockwise around it. But by Saturday night, Low Pressure System-driven fronts (both warm and cold), are set to pass through the Prairie State, bringing favorable northwesterly winds with it. So if I were to make any predictions on when to expect the most arrivals and influxes, I would put my money on Sunday morning.

Cool. Good luck everyone, and Bon Voyage.

10/22 IL Migration Report

Tonight's favorable winds. Click to
watch live.

Hey folks,

Conditions are pretty good over Illinois tonight; if we were to look alone at the winds over the Prairie State, we would think that there should be explosive movements over our heads right now. Fortunately or unfortunately, this isn't the case. Winter is slowly but surely creeping its way into our state, and with it comes many bouts of precipitation and areas of low visibility. Wherever these conditions exist in IL, a damper will be put on the birds in the air there. This could be what explains the strange paucity of any sort of color from the Central IL station, or the radar there could temporarily be disabled. If the former is the case, large areas of low visibility and precipitation should continue to keep birds down. If the latter is the case, Illinois is experiencing moderate migration right now. It's hard to tell which.

And yet...a strange lack of birds
in much of the state.

Regardless, keep your eyes peeled and your ears open for any arrivals

and influxes tomorrow. The latest BirdCast gives a handful of birds as a sampling of what's to come: Brant, Ring-necked Duck, Lesser Scaup, Bufflehead, Common Goldeneye, Black and White-winged Scoters, Hooded Merganser, Common Loon, Horned Grebe, American Tree Sparrow, Dark-eyed Junco, and Snow Bunting.

Cool. Looking forward with our trusty Wind Forecast, favorable north/northwesterly winds are forecast to continue for the next few days. This is many migrants best chance to escape the oncoming cold, so definitely expect them to use it. And things are looking very good for you hawkwatchers too. Although it's hard to top Swainson's Hawk and Golden Eagle IN ONE DAY, it will be interesting to see what pops up, and in what numbers.

Good stuff everyone. Bon voyage and happy trails.