April 1st: 2015 IL Migration Report Debut!

Tonight's winds. Click for live view.

Fellow Illinoisans!

At last, it's time to start the migration report.

Though today is April Fools' Day, I promise this is no joke: winds are aligning beautifully tonight for northbound migration. A complicated mosaic of weather systems across the eastern half of the continent (viewable here) are converging to furnish migrants with favorable southerly winds. This is exciting not only because of the warmer temperatures these winds have brought. Tomorrow morning, it would be more than reasonable to expect some notable influxes, and more than worthwhile to get out there and take it in. We're getting closer every day to the thick of spring migration, and it's nights like these that get me excited for it.

Tonight's migration. Note storm systems entering Southern and Central
Illinois, and the squall line looming over WI, MN, and IA. Note that
the migration seen here will likely be heavier, later.

With that excitement in mind, let's take a look at conditions for each third (Northern, Central, and Southern) of the Prairie State: *note that there may be some redundancy between each report

NORTHERN ILLINOIS:
In the northern third of the state, it appears that migration will be disrupted the least throughout the night compared to the rest of the state, as rain will not arrive until late tomorrow morning. This means a relatively simple report here: tonight Northern Illinois is host to moderate migration (71-227 birds per cubic kilometer of sky), and tomorrow morning arrivals and influxes should be apparent. See below the Southern Illinois report for birds to look for.

Unfortunately, tonight's favorable conditions will be short-lived. Tomorrow, a squall line will usher in a cold front from northwest of us, bringing cold, unfavorable, northwesterly winds with it. By Friday morning, winds will be northerly across most of the Prairie State, but it will only take until tomorrow evening for northern Illinois to be ensconced. What does this mean? It means we'll just have to wait and see when the next notable movements occur. In the meantime, get out there and find what's migrating!

View the wind forecast for yourself here.

CENTRAL ILLINOIS:
Like in Northern Illinois, Central Illinois is host to moderate migration (71-227 birds per cubic kilometer of sky) tonight, which means arrivals and influxes tomorrow. See below the Southern Illinois report for birds to look for. But, unlike in Northern Illinois, the consistency of tonight's migration depends on where in Central Illinois you are. Migration tonight will be more or less disrupted by small storm systems moving eastward. These storms are visible here. Overall though, tonight is probably the best night this year for bird migration, so if you can, get out there tomorrow!

Unfortunately, tonight's favorable conditions will be short-lived. Tomorrow, a squall line will usher in a cold front from northwest of us, bringing cold, unfavorable, northwesterly winds with it. By Friday morning, winds will be northerly across most of the Prairie State, and Central Illinois should be well ensconced by Thursday night. From there, we'll wait for spring migrants' next big break together.

View the wind forecast for yourself here.


SOUTHERN ILLINOIS:
While migration is still very good in Southern Illinois (moderate migration, meaning 71-227 birds per cubic kilometer of sky), Southern Illinois is also facing the largest chance of storm disruption. A number of small systems are moving through Southern Illinois right now. These storms may continue to do so through the night, disrupting whatever migration they encounter. Do note, however, that these systems seem to be dissipating in the radar, so things may be clearer tonight than expected. You might also just get lucky and be in an area without any rain!

Unfortunately, tonight's favorable conditions will be short-lived. Tomorrow, a squall line will usher in a cold front from northwest of us, bringing cold, unfavorable, northwesterly winds with it. By Friday morning, winds will be northerly across most of the Prairie State. Only the most southern counties of Illinois (Massac, Pulaski, Alexander) may avoid the northerly winds. This remains to be seen, but if they do, migrants may be accumulating there for the next few days. Regardless of what's happening then, a lot is happening tonight! Tomorrow should be a grand day to get out there and bird it up.

View the wind forecast for yourself here.

~

The forecast descent of a cold front, bringing northerly winds

So what migrants can you expect tomorrow? Highlight species may include Tree Swallow, Orange-crowned Warbler, Common Yellowthroat, Double-crested Cormorant, Osprey, Pectoral Sandpiper, Baird’s Sandpiper, Eastern Phoebe, and Fox Sparrow. But, as you well know, nine species does not a good birding day make. Check out this page of eBird data, which gives bar graphs for Illinois' birds' occurrence, year-round. From it, you can determine which species may be influxing at this time. Still itching for comprehensive migration analysis? Check out BirdCast's latest forecast. They do a grand job out at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology.

Still not satisfied? In the past few months, I've been working on a project called PhenCal (short for Phenology Calendar). The ultimate goal of the project is to make an smartphone app that makes the process of determining which birds to look for much more accessible and intuitive. Read more about it here. Given my current circumstances, however, the goal of producing an app is far down the road, but I have been making progress down another avenue. I have been working on a PhenCal Google Calendar to which anyone can subscribe. In that calendar, you can see all the birds that may be occurring today and view date ranges of that occurrence. The best part? It's all color-coded to communicate how frequently each species is seen in a given date range.

Unfortunately, it's a very tedious process, but if you're in Northeastern Illinois, a PhenCal should be completed for you in the next two weeks. As you can imagine, I will keep you updated!

With that, I'm extremely excited to follow migration with you for the next two months. Here's to the spring!