Friday, October 2, 2015
Oct 3, 2015
Tonight Illinois is experiencing uniformly negligible to only extremely light concentrations of migrants in our skies, as evidenced by the relative dearth of radar noise across the state on the current national composite radar (http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/us3comp.gif).
Although winds are out of the north (northeast) which should be acting as favorable tailwinds for migration, there are two factors one should consider which could be currently grounding many birds: 1) with the very strong, gusty winds across the state, it may be TOO windy for the birds to migrate. This has been known to happen in Illinois in the past. 2) Illinois is shrouded by overcast clouds, and since many theories conjecture that some birds rely somewhat on the stars for navigation while migrating during the night, this may also be playing a part in the relative lack of movement tonight.
So tomorrow (Saturday) morning should be a good day to find the last of those interesting warblers (for southern Illinoisans) and to admire mid-to-late migration species such as Golden-crowned Kinglet, White-throated Sparrow, Hermit Thrush, and Peregrine Falcon (for northern Illinoisans).
Tomorrow night should display nearly identical weather conditions as tonight except for slightly lighter winds across much of the state, so movement should be about the same tomorrow night; maybe slightly more if anything.
To predict which species you are likely to find and when, please consult:
BirdCast's regional migration forecast for this week: http://birdcast.info/forecast/regional-migration-forecast-2-9-october-2015/#MidwestNortheast
eBird's species occurrence chart for Illinois: http://ebird.org/ebird/GuideMe?src=changeDate&getLocations=states&states=US-IL&parentState=US-IL&reportType=location&monthRadio=on&bMonth=08&eMonth=11&bYear=1900&eYear=2015&continue.x=63&continue.y=9&continue=Continue
In summary, very few arrivals and influxes should be expected tomorrow (Saturday) morning, which only slightly better prospects for Sunday.
Henry (Oak Park, Cook County)