Saturday, October 3, 2015
Oct 4, 2015
Tonight, the whole of Illinois is experiencing negligible avian movements. This is evidenced by possibly one of the lowest levels of radar noise seen so far this season on the current national composite radar (http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/us3comp.gif).
Again, this could be due to a number of factors including gusty winds which the birds could be judging to be too dangerous to migrate, as well as overcast skies which could be impairing many birds' navigational awareness.
On another note, with winds out of the north and cloudy skies tomorrow, tomorrow should be a fairly PRODUCTIVE day for HAWK-WATCHING.
Illinois is forecast to experience northerly winds tomorrow night, as well; however, they will be much weaker and the skies will be a bit clearer, which will hopefully be two factors contributing to a possibly moderate to heavy movement tomorrow (Sunday) night.
The turnover (at least in the Chicago area) the last few days has been quite impressive! My predicted transition from Swainson's to Hermit Thrushes has occurred and the mixed flocks of warblers have, for the most part, been replaced by steady streams of Yellow-rumps (with the occasional Palm or Orange-crowned), as well as other species like White-throated Sparrow and the omnipresent Golden-crowned Kinglets. Southern Illinois should be experiencing this transition within a week at most.
To predict which species you are likely to find and when, please consult:
BirdCast's regional migration forecast for this week: http://birdcast.info/forecast/regional-migration-forecast-2-9-october-2015/#MidwestNortheast
eBird's species occurrence chart for Illinois: http://ebird.org/ebird/GuideMe?src=changeDate&getLocations=states&states=US-IL&parentState=US-IL&reportType=location&monthRadio=on&bMonth=08&eMonth=11&bYear=1900&eYear=2015&continue.x=63&continue.y=9&continue=Continue
In summary, tomorrow (Sunday) could very well turn out to be a PRODUCTIVE day for HAWK-WATCHING but probably NOT for finding large influxes of passerines.
Henry (Oak Park, Cook County)