Friday, September 11, 2015
Sept 12 - 13, 2015
This is the combined migration report for Saturday, September 12 and Sunday, September 13 because I have an all-day choir retreat tomorrow and therefore won't be able to post.
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12 FORECAST:
MODERATE to HEAVY migration STATE-WIDE is occurring tonight as evidenced by fairly even green radar noise showing up on the national composite radar, which can be found here: http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/us3comp.gif
Migration may be grounded later tonight in northern Illinois due to rain showers that are forecast to move in very late/very early morning so I would conclude that there is about a 40 PERCENT CHANCE for FALL-OUT CONDITIONS in the northern half of the state, especially in the western region and along Lake Michigan hotspots.
Migration is occurring in moderate to locally heavy densities because the entire state is experiencing northerly tailwinds tonight, spurring birds to migrate in fairly even densities that will hopefully be productive for birding tomorrow morning. View the current wind conditions here: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-89.19,40.03,2455
So wherever you are in the state tomorrow morning, it would be worth getting out.
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13 FORECAST:
The forecast for tomorrow (Saturday) night calls for northerly winds again state-wide but with no precipitation. Birds should also migrate in moderate densities tomorrow night because northerly winds, as tailwinds for the birds, are conducive for migration. Birders statewide should therefore also get out Sunday morning, which is forecast to be about equally as productive as tomorrow (Saturday) morning.
As we near the middle of September, warblers should experience some turnover with species such as Mourning and Connecticut starting to move out of northern Illinois while Black-throated Green Warblers become even more prominent and the first few Yellow-rumped Warblers start to appear.
Liz Day Shorebird Forecast: As September wears on, shorebirds should overall be growing less numerous; however, many species should still be lingering and places like Emiquon or Chautauqua, and it would be worth checking for an uncommon Red Knot that could show up along a Lake Michigan or possibly an inland location sometime.
To find out exactly which avian species you are likely to see, please consult:
BirdCast's regional migration forecast for this week: http://birdcast.info/forecast/regional-migration-forecast-11-18-september-2015/
eBird's species occurrence chart for Illinois: http://ebird.org/ebird/GuideMe?src=changeDate&getLocations=states&states=US-IL&parentState=US-IL&reportType=location&monthRadio=on&bMonth=08&eMonth=11&bYear=1900&eYear=2015&continue.x=63&continue.y=9&continue=Continue
In conclusion, it would be worth birding anywhere in the state both tomorrow (Saturday) and Sunday mornings!