Thursday, September 17, 2015
Sept 18, 2015
The entire state of Illinois is experiencing a dearth of migration tonight. The northern half is currently experiencing southerly headwinds and thunderstorms will later move in, further grounding bird's movements. Across the southern half of the state, little precipitation is expected; however, southerly winds will be keeping birds from migrating the entire night. All of this lack of movement and abundance of storms moving into the northern half of the state can be seen on the current national composite radar: (http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/us3comp.gif)
Analyzing the hourly and daily forecasts on the weather channel for multiple locations across the state, it appears that storms will be abundant in the northern half of the state over the next 24-30 hours while southerly winds will be reigning in all parts of the state roughly during that same time period. These are all factors that will prevent birds from migrating in large quantities until Saturday night, so Sunday morning should be the first morning with noticeable turnover in the near future.
Liz Day Shorebird Forecast: Keep checking Lake Michigan lakefront locations and inland shorebird "hubs" for shorebirds! Although it is late in the season, good species are still being seen at various Lake County lakefront sites, and inland, more southerly locations such as Emiquon and Chautauqua. Sanderling and Semipalmated Sandpiper should be some of the more common shorebird species (depending on habitat) migrating through that are slightly more late-shorebird-migration-prone in their habits.
To forecast exactly which species you are likely to find and when, please consult:
BirdCast's regional migration forecast for this week: http://birdcast.info/forecast/regional-migration-forecast-11-18-september-2015/
eBird's species occurrence map for Illinois: http://ebird.org/ebird/GuideMe?src=changeDate&getLocations=states&states=US-IL&parentState=US-IL&reportType=location&monthRadio=on&bMonth=08&eMonth=11&bYear=1900&eYear=2015&continue.x=63&continue.y=9&continue=Continue
In conclusion, tomorrow and Saturday mornings should yield little turnover for the state whereas Sunday morning has the possibility to be quite productive.
Henry (Oak Park, Cook County)