A quick note: I attached my giant list to this report just because I haven't the past few days, but if you focus on anything in this big collection of words, the first two paragraphs have the most relevant information to your birding experience.
At long last, the echoes of the return of favorable conditions are being heard. High pressure has
moved into the area, bringing its slow and weak winds into the area (http://hint.fm/wind/).
These conditions will likely last through tomorrow. But is potentially
better for migration than the past few nights, which have been ruled by
northerly winds. Looking at the surface winds (http://bit.ly/13v4YGb),
we see that in most places, there isn't even a definite direction to
the winds. Overall, they seem to be northerly, but the point is that
there aren't any strong headwinds. Though there certainly isn't any
strong tailwind to give the birds an extra boost, less is stopping them
from migrating, so tonight will probably see light and maybe a low level
of moderate migration (when I say light, moderate, and heavy, I'm
referring to the densities of birds moving per cubic kilometer). The
radar is proving this prediction correct, with light to moderate
migration in Southern IL, and light migration in most other places
(check out IL here: http://bit.ly/11RiKRb or here: http://bit.ly/10Qfjz3).
Cool! It's not a huge improvement to the past few days, but hey, it's
something! If you're in Southern IL, definitely keep an eye out for the
products of tonight's movements if you make it out there tomorrow.
|Tonight's surface analysis...high pressure|
So how about some longer-term forecasting? Winds, with the systems of high-pressure and interfering low pressure here and there, winds will remain to be very weak with confusingly inconsistent direction for the next day and a half, though northerly and westerly winds will be the overall theme depending on where you
But come Thursday afternoon...drumroll...we see the return of more
powerful southerly winds to the area (see image 16 here for S IL: http://bit.ly/10QiZAS or image 16 here for N IL: http://bit.ly/10Qj1Zr). There will still be areas of incongruence, but overall, it looks like ***Thursday night will be a major improvement in migratory conditions***.
It looks like the southerly winds will last through Thursday night and
into Friday, but around then it is forecast that winds will again become
northerly. This is still longer-term forecasting and is in no way set
in stone, but right now this is in my plans. So, if you're looking for a
good time to get out there and get the most out of it, I say ***concentrate your efforts on Friday morning***.
|Tonight's migration: light to moderate in S IL, light elsewhere|
Cool! Today, fewer reports came in than yesterday, so let's use my giant list as a sort of combined report/prediction. Here we go: birds to be on the look out for arrivals/influxes of in YOUR area include BLACK-CROWNED NIGHT-HERONS, GREEN HERON, BROAD-WINGED HAWK, SORA, VIRGINIA RAIL, COMMON GALLINULE, maybe SEMIPALMATED PLOVERS, PECTORAL, SPOTTED, LEAST, and SOLITARY SANDPIPER, DUNLIN, SANDERLING, UPLAND SANDPIPER, WILLET, WILSON'S PHALAROPE, LONG-BILLED DOWITCHER, FORSTER'S TERN, COMMON TERN, COMMON NIGHTHAWK, EASTERN WHIP-POOR-WILL, CHIMNEY SWIFT, RUBY-THROATED HUMMINGBIRD, EASTERN WOOD-PEWEE, LEAST FLYCATCHER, GREAT CRESTED FLYCATCHER, BLUE-HEADED, WHITE-EYED, WARBLING and RED-EYED VIREO, HOUSE WREN, SEDGE WREN, MARSH WREN, all the expected swallows, all the expected sparrows (especially take note of LE CONTE'S SPARROWS, HENSLOW'S SPARROWS, GRASSHOPPER SPARROWS, and CLAY-COLORED SPARROWS), SWAINSON'S, GRAY-CHEEKED, and WOOD THRUSHES, warblers including but not limited to BLUE-WINGED WARBLERS, ORANGE-CROWNED WARBLERS, PRAIRIE WARBLERS, BLACK-THROATED GREEN WARBLERS, PINE WARBLERS, YELLOW WARBLERS, HOODED WARBLERS, BLACK-AND-WHITE WARBLERS, NORTHERN PARULAS, LOUISIANA + NORTHERN WATERTHRUSHES, WORM-EATING WARBLERS, COMMON YELLOWTHROATS, YELLOW-BREASTED CHAT, SCARLET and SUMMER TANAGERS, ORCHARD and BALTIMORE ORIOLES, BREWER'S, RUSTY, and YELLOW HEADED BLACKBIRDS, INDIGO BUNTINGS, BOBOLINKS, and possibly early DICKCISSELS. And with migration, there are always chances of early overshoots and vagrants too.
Cool then. That's all for now. I'll be looking forward to your reports from tomorrow. In the meantime, I'll be wondering how many more Spotted Towhees we can turn up. Happy birding!
|About when southerly winds will occur as we become ahead of counter-clockwise rotating low-pressure systems|